EUR/USD is mixed to bearish, influenced by resistance levels and upcoming data. GBP/USD is bullish with the pound at four-month highs on positive UK data and hawkish BoE comments. EUR/GBP remains volatile, reflecting diverging economic conditions in the Eurozone and the UK.
European trading is subdued due to the U.S. holiday, with the euro benefiting from weak U.S. data. The pound rises ahead of the UK election, supported by market sentiment. ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments on interest rates support the euro. Overall, mixed sentiment prevails with cautious trading expected. Key economic events include Eurozone retail sales, Germany's industrial production, and UK services PMI.
The New Zealand central bank maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.50% as expected during its previous meeting. While there was no surprise of the central bank paused rates, the less hawkish tone was a surprise as 23% of the market surveyed by Reuters predicted an interest rate hike. In February, the rate of consumer price growth in the United States picked up pace with the reading came in at 3.2%, surpassing expectations of 3.1% for underlying inflation.
As investors head into the fourth quarter, the VIX Volatility Index - often referred to as the market‘s ’fear gauge - is in an uptrend. In September, US benchmark stock indices saw some of the worst monthly performance since March 2020. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished the third quarter little changed. More importantly, they trimmed most of their gains. The Dow Jones declined.
Central banks around the world are stepping up their quantitative easing efforts to stimulate an economic recovery. On September 12th, European Central Bank (ECB) announced after decision meeting to further cut the deposit reserve rate from -0.4% to -0.5%, while restarting the quantitative easing scheme from November with a plan to purchase €20 billion-worth of bonds each month. On September 19th, US Federal Reserve will also release its decision on interest rate, which is expected to be down by 25 basis points in September.
EUR/USD may rise if US retail sales and sentiment data amplify growing Fed rate cut bets after the ECB failed to meet the markets ultra-dovish expectations.
Global traders will be in for a turbulent day as the ECB prepares to announce its rate decision which may inspire market-wide volatility. This may be amplified by US CPI data.
Euro selling pressure builds as implied volatility measures skyrocket and dovish expectations fester while forex traders anxiously await the high-impact September ECB meeting slated for Thursday.
The Euro may fall against the US Dollar if ECB minutes carry ultra-dovish undertones and commentary from Jackson Hole spooks markets against the backdrop of Eurozone PMI data.
The US Dollar may rise at the expense of the Euro if Eurozone inflation data misses estimates and fuels ECB rate cut bets and expectations of quantitative easing being reintroduced.
The Euro downtrend is in focus after the ECB dialed up stimulus expectations. NZD/USD is also at risk after New Zealand manufacturing PMI contracted by the most since 2012.
The Euro is coming under heavy selling pressure following the latest remarks from the ECB's Rehn hinted at the need for an aggressive monetary stimulus package as soon as next month.
The Fed cut rates for the first time in over a decade by 25bp to 2.00-2.25% seeming to keep options for more on the table
Euro currency traders will likely turn to upcoming Eurozone economic data next Wednesday which highlights EU GDP and CPI numbers following last week's July ECB meeting.
EURUSD violently oscillated before settling unchanged after the ECB rate decision and commentary. The pair is now bracing for the release of US GDP data.
The Euro gained after the ECB as Mario Draghi disappointed dovish expectations, rising bond yields spread into North America as the US Dollar rallied, leaving EUR/USD at key support.
Euro prices reversed sharply from fresh yearly lows today with the recovery now testing a key inflection zone. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts.
EURUSD may extend Mondays decline and re-enter a critical resistance-turned support channel if Eurozone CPI data misses estimates and fuels rate cut bets.
Markets believe the European Central Bank will ease policy this year. This could be bad news for the Swiss National Bank, but its not clear that it will resort to old remedies.
EURUSD continued to push higher this morning as the pair headed towards the 1.1388 handle despite IFO figures about future expectations being lower than anticipated.