KVB Market Analysis | 16 August: USD/JPY Forecast: Short-Term Bearish Trend Amid Dollar Consolidation

This year's arbitrage gains have been erased, with 65%-75% of these positions closed. The dollar's reaction has been as expected but slightly disappointing, with a significant 100 basis point rise in U.S. short-term interest rates impacting it. JPMorgan has reduced its dollar forecasts, now predicting USD/JPY at $146 in Q4 2024 and $144 in Q2 2025, down from $147. Despite a weakening job market, other economic data remains strong.