EUR/USD Forecast: Mildly bullish in the near-term

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1947

• US data indicated economic progress but missed the markets expectations.

• German IFO Survey showed improved Business Climate in June.

• EUR/USD finding support around a critical Fibonacci level.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at around 1.1950, marginally higher on a daily basis. A batch of US data has barely affected price action, as numbers were mostly encouraging, although most of them missed the markets expectations. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 19 printed at 411K, while the previous weekly figure was revised to 418K. Durable Goods Orders were up 2.3% in May, while the Q1 Gross Domestic Product was confirmed at 6.4%.

The figures indicate that the US economic recovery may have reached a plateau. It‘s not bad news but may spur dollar’s weakness. Earlier in the day, Germany published the German IFO Survey, which showed that the Business Climate in June improved to 101.8, beating the markets expectations. The assessment of the current situation and expectations were also up.

Ahead of the opening, Wall Street seems poised to keep rising, which should weigh on the greenback. US Treasury yields ticked higher, but the yield on the key 10-year note remains below 1.50%

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is poised to extend its advance in the near-term. The 4-hour chart shows that it keeps finding support around the 61.8% retracement of its March/May rally, while the 20 SMA converges with the Fibonacci level. Technical indicators aim higher after consolidating around their midlines, reflecting limited dollars demand.

Support levels: 1.1920 1.1885 1.1840

Resistance levels: 1.1960 1.2000 1.2045